Lillestrom 2–2 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Fredrikstad

A. C. Ntiso 90'

L. Ranger 73'

O. Ohlenschlaeger 37'

H. Skogvold 5'

1/31/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lillestrom42%

×Draw21%

Fredrikstad37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.93

Lillestrom

2.04

Fredrikstad

1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

2.91

creates per match

1.67

2.18

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Lillestrom

2.91

Fredrikstad

1.67

allows per match

Lillestrom

2.18

Fredrikstad

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lillestrom+0.00on par

Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

63%

Lillestrom or Fredrikstad

79%

Draw or Fredrikstad

58%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

23%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

87%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

60%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

33%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

85%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

57%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

53%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 2.91, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 2.91 + Fredrikstad defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.04

Fredrikstad attack 1.67 + Lillestrom defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lillestrom scores more

42%

level

21%

Fredrikstad scores more

37%

Lillestrom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

H. Skogvold

36'

37'

O. Ohlenschlaeger

48'

73'

L. Ranger

75'

90'

A. C. Ntiso

Lillestrom

Fredrikstad

⚽

⚽

Manager: Hans Odegaard

Lillestrom substitutes

RangerGabrielsenOgbojiBjornsengenAndersenWoxenArierhiDrammehNtisoIbrahimaj

Manager: Andreas Hagen

Fredrikstad substitutes

OvretveitLangbratenOkpalekeRafnAndresenHalstensenSolbergHansenYrga-AlemNordrumYoboueBotchwayLunde

Friendlies Clubs: Lillestrom 2–2 Fredrikstad

Lillestrom and Fredrikstad drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.

Goals: H. Skogvold (5'), O. Ohlenschlaeger (37'), L. Ranger (73'), A. C. Ntiso (90').

Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Lillestrom 2–2 Fredrikstad