Fredrikstad 2–1 Lillestrom: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lillestrom

J. Kjær 78'

M. Bjørlo 50' (pen)

R. Gabrielsen 59'

10/20/2024

Eliteserien · Round 25Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fredrikstad48%

×Draw25%

Lillestrom27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.10

Fredrikstad

1.57

Lillestrom

1.10

Fredrikstad creates 43% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

1.44

creates per match

1.13

1.08

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.44

Lillestrom

1.13

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.08

Lillestrom

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Lillestrom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

73%

Fredrikstad or Lillestrom

75%

Draw or Lillestrom

52%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

25%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

79%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

46%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

21%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

67%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

30%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

64%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.44 + Lillestrom defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.57

Lillestrom attack 1.13 + Fredrikstad defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

48%

level

25%

Lillestrom scores more

27%

Fredrikstad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Magnússon

Fredrikstad · M

7.9

Match Events

22'

Sondre Sørløkk

43'

Simen Rafn

45+2'

Ruben Gabrielsen

46'

E. Knudtzon← E. Larsson

50'

M. BjørloPenalty

56'

Sigurd Kvile

59'

R. Gabrielsen↳ K. Krygård

64'

J. Kjær← H. Skogvold

64'

J. Bjartalíð← P. Metcalfe

73'

A. Røssing-Lelesiit← E. Kitolano

73'

M. Karlsbakk← M. Lundemo

78'

Jeppe Kjaer

78'

J. Kjær↳ J. Magnússon

80'

H. Johansen← S. Sørløkk

83'

M. Bolly← Vá

87'

Mohanad Jeahze

90+1'

Erling Knudtzon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadLillestrom

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots9

2.39Expected Goals (xG)0.89

5Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots9

6On Target3

4Off Target4

5Blocked2

9Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

381Total Passes438

276Accurate Passes332

72%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3