Lillestrom 0–3 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Fredrikstad

S. Sørløkk 90+4'

O. Aga 90' (pen)

J. Magnússon 41'

5/20/2024

Eliteserien · Round 9Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Lillestrom50%

×Draw24%

Fredrikstad26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.20

Lillestrom

1.75

Fredrikstad

1.20

Lillestrom creates 46% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 34 away

1.83

creates per match

1.11

1.28

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.83

Fredrikstad

1.11

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.28

Fredrikstad

1.66

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Lillestrom-0.20scores less

Fredrikstad-0.05on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

74%

Lillestrom or Fredrikstad

76%

Draw or Fredrikstad

50%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

27%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

83%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

52%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

25%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

70%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

34%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

66%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.28 · 19 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.83 + Fredrikstad defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fredrikstad attack 1.11 + Lillestrom defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lillestrom scores more

50%

level

24%

Fredrikstad scores more

26%

Lillestrom at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

S. Sørløkk

Fredrikstad · F

7.6

Match Events

33'

Philip Sandvik Aukland

41'

J. Magnússon

46'

A. Røssing-Lelesiit← T. Lehne Olsen

50'

A. Karlin← E. Kitolano

68'

B. Hendriksson← J. Kjær

68'

B. Skaret← P. Aukland

72'

F. Elkær← K. Tønnessen

73'

E. Larsson← U. Charles

80'

E. Garnås← M. Roseth

84'

Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit

85'

86'

90+1'

90+1'

90+3'

E. Segberg← P. Metcalfe

90'

O. AgaPenalty

90+4'

S. Sørløkk↳ B. Hendriksson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromFredrikstad

Overview

61%Possession39%

10Total Shots9

1.22Expected Goals (xG)1.62

3Corners7

4Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots9

2On Target3

4Off Target4

4Blocked2

10Inside Box7

0Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

437Total Passes263

329Accurate Passes165

75%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

4Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Eliteserien: Lillestrom 0–3 Fredrikstad

Fredrikstad beat Lillestrom 3-0 in Eliteserien on May 20, 2024.

Goals: J. Magnússon (41'), O. Aga (90' pen), S. Sørløkk (90+4').

Lillestrom controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller.

Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Lillestrom 0–3 Fredrikstad