Lillestrom 5–1 Aalesund: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Aalesund

T. Lehne Olsen 81', 77'

A. Adams 56'

V. Skjærvik 41'

Y. Ibrahimaj 30'

I. Atanga 11'

7/19/2023

Eliteserien · Round 11Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lillestrom57%

×Draw21%

Aalesund22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.27

Lillestrom

2.15

Aalesund

1.27

Lillestrom creates 69% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

1.83

creates per match

1.26

1.28

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.83

Aalesund

1.26

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.28

Aalesund

2.46

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Lillestrom-0.20scores less

Aalesund-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

78%

Lillestrom or Aalesund

79%

Draw or Aalesund

43%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

35%

Aalesund wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

88%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

63%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

36%

Aalesund 1+ goals

72%

Aalesund 2+ goals

36%

Aalesund 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

72%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.28 · 19 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.46 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.83 + Aalesund defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.15

Aalesund attack 1.26 + Lillestrom defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lillestrom scores more

57%

level

21%

Aalesund scores more

22%

Lillestrom at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

G. Åsen

Lillestrom · M

10.0

Match Events

11'

I. Atanga↳ B. Kristensen

23'

Amidou Diop

30'

Y. Ibrahimaj↳ V. Skjærvik

34'

Ylldren Ibrahimaj

39'

E. Edh← R. Gabrielsen

41'

V. Skjærvik↳ G. Åsen

46'

Espen Bjornsen Garnas

46'

A. Andersen← B. Kristensen

56'

A. Adams↳ G. Åsen

59'

K. Lunding← K. Barmen

69'

T. Svendsen← Y. Ibrahimaj

69'

M. Lundemo← V. Hoff

75'

M. Diop← I. Atanga

75'

H. Melland← K. Ødemarksbakken

77'

T. Lehne Olsen↳ E. Edh

81'

T. Lehne Olsen↳ G. Åsen

83'

U. Charles← L. Ranger

84'

H. Skogvold← A. Adams

90+1'

T. Murray← A. Munksgaard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromAalesund

Overview

74%Possession26%

21Total Shots8

8Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots8

9On Target3

8Off Target2

4Blocked3

13Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

74%Possession26%

631Total Passes227

534Accurate Passes134

85%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0