Aalesund 1–1 Lillestrom: Result & Stats

Aalesund

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lillestrom

B. Kristensen 64'

T. Lehne Olsen 12'

9/3/2023

Eliteserien · Round 21Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Aalesund40%

×Draw23%

Lillestrom37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.61

Aalesund

1.69

Lillestrom

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 19 away

1.69

creates per match

1.52

1.70

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Aalesund

1.69

Lillestrom

1.52

allows per match

Aalesund

1.70

Lillestrom

1.70

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Aalesund-0.44scores less

Lillestrom-0.36scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

63%

Aalesund or Lillestrom

77%

Draw or Lillestrom

60%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

21%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

82%

Aalesund 2+ goals

50%

Aalesund 3+ goals

24%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

80%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

48%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

52%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.70 · 12 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.69 + Lillestrom defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lillestrom attack 1.52 + Aalesund defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aalesund scores more

40%

level

23%

Lillestrom scores more

37%

Aalesund at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

E. Garnås

Lillestrom · D

7.7

Match Events

8'

Hakon Butli Hammer

11'

A. Diop← D. Fällman

12'

T. Lehne Olsen↳ K. Tønnessen

61'

K. Thompson← H. Skogvold

64'

B. Kristensen↳ M. Karlsbakk

81'

I. Atanga← B. Kristensen

87'

T. Klysner← K. Ødemarksbakken

90+1'

F. Elkær← K. Tønnessen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalesundLillestrom

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots14

1.77Expected Goals (xG)1.08

8Corners5

9Fouls5

Shots

16Total Shots14

5On Target5

6Off Target6

5Blocked3

11Inside Box8

5Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

362Total Passes436

265Accurate Passes321

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides3