Lille U19 2–0 Chelsea U19: Result & Stats

Lille U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chelsea U19

F. Ouattara 90+3'

N. Fatar 45+1' (pen)

10/2/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Complexe Sportif de Luchin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lille U1941%

×Draw25%

Chelsea U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lille U19Expected goals in this matchChelsea U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.39

Lille U19

1.52

Chelsea U19

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

1.17

creates per match

1.94

0.83

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Lille U19

1.17

Chelsea U19

1.94

allows per match

Lille U19

0.83

Chelsea U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lille U19+0.00on par

Chelsea U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille U19 ↓

Chelsea U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lille U19 or draw

65%

Lille U19 or Chelsea U19

75%

Draw or Chelsea U19

59%

Winning margin

Lille U19 wins by 2+

20%

Chelsea U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lille U19 1+ goals

78%

Lille U19 2+ goals

45%

Lille U19 3+ goals

20%

Chelsea U19 1+ goals

75%

Chelsea U19 2+ goals

40%

Chelsea U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lille U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Chelsea U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille U19 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Chelsea U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille U19 attack 1.17 + Chelsea U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chelsea U19 attack 1.94 + Lille U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lille U19 scores more

41%

level

25%

Chelsea U19 scores more

35%

Lille U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lille U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

N. FatarPenalty

56'

A. Mandefu← F. Çoğalan

56'

H. Lawrence← A. Broja

76'

A. Majid← J. Mboyo

76'

J. Haigh← G. Nunn

86'

D. Rankine← X. Simons

90+2'

F. Ouattara← A. Camara

90+3'

F. Ouattara↳ N. Fatar

Lille

Chelsea

13

3

2

5

4

7

6

10

16

▼

Simons

9

▼

Broja

11

▼

1

2

3

4

6

5

10

▼

Çoğalan

9

⚽A

Fatar

11

Bardeli

8

▼

Mboyo

7

▼

Camara

Manager: M. Delestrez

56'▲A. Mandefu←▼F. Çoğalan

76'▲A. Majid←▼J. Mboyo

90+2'▲F. Ouattara←▼A. Camara

Lille U19 substitutes

18Mandefu17Majid14Ouattara16Dejonge12Bangoura13Hamed15Boula

Manager: A. Myers

56'▲H. Lawrence←▼A. Broja

76'▲J. Haigh←▼G. Nunn

86'▲D. Rankine←▼X. Simons

Chelsea U19 substitutes

12Lawrence20Haigh18Rankine1Žiger15Simeu17Lewis14Colwill