Chelsea U19 1–1 Lille U19: Result & Stats

Chelsea U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lille U19

Y. Hamed 15' (OG)

S. Ramet 88'

12/10/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Cobham Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chelsea U1962%

×Draw19%

Lille U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chelsea U19Expected goals in this matchLille U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.27

Chelsea U19

2.38

Lille U19

1.27

Chelsea U19 creates 87% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

3.25

creates per match

1.17

1.38

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Chelsea U19

3.25

Lille U19

1.17

allows per match

Chelsea U19

1.38

Lille U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea U19+0.00on par

Lille U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea U19 ↓

Lille U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Chelsea U19 or draw

81%

Chelsea U19 or Lille U19

81%

Draw or Lille U19

38%

Winning margin

Chelsea U19 wins by 2+

40%

Lille U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chelsea U19 1+ goals

91%

Chelsea U19 2+ goals

68%

Chelsea U19 3+ goals

42%

Lille U19 1+ goals

72%

Lille U19 2+ goals

36%

Lille U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chelsea U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Lille U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea U19 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Lille U19 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea U19 attack 3.25 + Lille U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Lille U19 attack 1.17 + Chelsea U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chelsea U19 scores more

62%

level

19%

Lille U19 scores more

19%

Chelsea U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chelsea U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Y. HamedOwn goal

36'

J. Haigh

40'

J. Ngoya

45+4'

B. Rolland← N. Innocenti

64'

S. Ramet← F. Çoğalan

66'

J. Brooking← D. Rankine

66'

S. Iling← J. Wakely

71'

A. Z. Bangoura

76'

G. Nunn

77'

I. Karamoko← E. Bardeli

78'

J. Mboyo← Y. Said

79'

B. Humphreys← Levi Colwill

79'

C. Wiggett← S. McClelland

80'

M. Peart-Harris← T. Ballo

88'

S. Ramet↳ I. Karamoko

Chelsea

Lille

1

Chevalier

4

Bangoura

2

Bouleghch

5

▼

Innocenti

3

🥅

Hamed

10

▼

Çoğalan

6

Ngoya

11

▼

Bardeli

7

Camara

8

Ascone

9

▼

Said

1

Askew

3

▼

Wakely

5

Aina

4

▼

McClellan

2

▼

Colwill

17

▼

Ballo

8

Simons

7

▼

6

11

9

Manager: A. Myers

66'▲J. Brooking←▼D. Rankine

66'▲S. Iling←▼J. Wakely

79'▲B. Humphreys←▼Levi Colwill

79'▲C. Wiggett←▼S. McClelland

80'▲M. Peart-Harris←▼T. Ballo

Chelsea U19 substitutes

14Brooking18Iling12Humphreys15Wiggett16Peart-Harris13Wady

Manager: M. Delestrez

45+4'▲B. Rolland←▼N. Innocenti

64'▲S. Ramet←▼F. Çoğalan

77'▲I. Karamoko←▼E. Bardeli

78'▲J. Mboyo←▼Y. Said

Lille U19 substitutes

13Rolland17Ramet14Karamoko12Mboyo15Roetynck18Lesage16Dejonge