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Lierse K. U21 vs Kortrijk U21 — League #518 2026

Lierse K. U21
Lierse K. U21
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Kortrijk U21
Kortrijk U21
H. Masaki 76', 15' (pen)
N. Wouters 24'
L. Verbauwhede 82'
K. Himpe 68' (pen), 25' (pen)
9/27/2024League #518League #518 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lierse K. U216%
×Draw10%
Kortrijk U2184%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lierse K. U21
1.00
Kortrijk U21
3.75

Kortrijk U21 creates 275% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lierse K. U21
1.25
Kortrijk U21
3.50

allows per match

Lierse K. U21
4.00
Kortrijk U21
0.75

finishing

Lierse K. U21+0.00on par
Kortrijk U21+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lierse K. U21 ↓

Kortrijk U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Lierse K. U21 or draw
16%
Lierse K. U21 or Kortrijk U21
90%
Draw or Kortrijk U21
94%

Winning margin

Lierse K. U21 wins by 2+
2%
Kortrijk U21 wins by 2+
68%

Team goals

Lierse K. U21 1+ goals
63%
Lierse K. U21 2+ goals
26%
Lierse K. U21 3+ goals
8%
Kortrijk U21 1+ goals
97%
Kortrijk U21 2+ goals
88%
Kortrijk U21 3+ goals
70%

Draw no bet

Lierse K. U21 (draw refunded)
7%
Kortrijk U21 (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lierse K. U21 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

Kortrijk U21 away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lierse K. U21 attack 1.25 + Kortrijk U21 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kortrijk U21 attack 3.50 + Lierse K. U21 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Lierse K. U21 scores more
6%
level
10%
Kortrijk U21 scores more
84%

Kortrijk U21 at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Kortrijk U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
H. MasakiPenalty
24'
N. Wouters
25'
K. HimpePenalty
68'
K. HimpePenalty
76'
H. Masaki
82'
L. Verbauwhede

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lierse K. U21 vs Kortrijk U21

Lierse K. U21 and Kortrijk U21 drew 3-3 in League #518 on September 27, 2024.

Goals: H. Masaki (15' pen, 76'), N. Wouters (24'), K. Himpe (25' pen, 68' pen), L. Verbauwhede (82').