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Kortrijk U21 vs Lierse K. U21 — League #518 2026

Kortrijk U21
Kortrijk U21
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lierse K. U21
Lierse K. U21
12/13/2024League #518League #518 · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kortrijk U2188%
×Draw8%
Lierse K. U214%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kortrijk U21
4.29
Lierse K. U21
1.00

Kortrijk U21 creates 329% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kortrijk U21
5.33
Lierse K. U21
1.00

allows per match

Kortrijk U21
1.00
Lierse K. U21
3.25

finishing

Kortrijk U21+0.00on par
Lierse K. U21+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk U21 ↓

Lierse K. U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Kortrijk U21 or draw
96%
Kortrijk U21 or Lierse K. U21
92%
Draw or Lierse K. U21
12%

Winning margin

Kortrijk U21 wins by 2+
74%
Lierse K. U21 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Kortrijk U21 1+ goals
98%
Kortrijk U21 2+ goals
92%
Kortrijk U21 3+ goals
77%
Lierse K. U21 1+ goals
63%
Lierse K. U21 2+ goals
26%
Lierse K. U21 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk U21 (draw refunded)
95%
Lierse K. U21 (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk U21 at home — creates 5.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Lierse K. U21 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk U21 attack 5.33 + Lierse K. U21 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 4.29

Lierse K. U21 attack 1.00 + Kortrijk U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Kortrijk U21 scores more
88%
level
8%
Lierse K. U21 scores more
4%

Kortrijk U21 at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Kortrijk U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #518: Kortrijk U21 2–1 Lierse K. U21

Kortrijk U21 beat Lierse K. U21 2-1 in League #518 on December 13, 2024.