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Liechtenstein vs Faroe Islands — Friendlies 2026

Liechtenstein
Liechtenstein
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands
3/22/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Marbella Football Center - Sur 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Liechtenstein19%
×Draw24%
Faroe Islands57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liechtenstein
0.84
Faroe Islands
1.69

Faroe Islands creates 101% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Liechtenstein
0.14
Faroe Islands
0.82

allows per match

Liechtenstein
2.57
Faroe Islands
1.55

finishing

Liechtenstein+0.00on par
Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liechtenstein ↓

Faroe Islands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Liechtenstein or draw
43%
Liechtenstein or Faroe Islands
76%
Draw or Faroe Islands
81%

Winning margin

Liechtenstein wins by 2+
6%
Faroe Islands wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Liechtenstein 1+ goals
57%
Liechtenstein 2+ goals
21%
Liechtenstein 3+ goals
5%
Faroe Islands 1+ goals
82%
Faroe Islands 2+ goals
50%
Faroe Islands 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Liechtenstein (draw refunded)
24%
Faroe Islands (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liechtenstein at home — creates 0.14, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Faroe Islands away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liechtenstein attack 0.14 + Faroe Islands defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 0.84

Faroe Islands attack 0.82 + Liechtenstein defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Liechtenstein scores more
19%
level
24%
Faroe Islands scores more
57%

Faroe Islands at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Faroe Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Liechtenstein 0–4 Faroe Islands

Faroe Islands beat Liechtenstein 4-0 in Friendlies on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Marbella Football Center - Sur 1 in San Pedro de Alcántara.