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Faroe Islands vs Liechtenstein — Friendlies 2026

Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Liechtenstein
Liechtenstein
3/25/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Marbella Football Center - Sur 1 (Stadium) (San Pedro de Alcántara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Faroe Islands78%
×Draw16%
Liechtenstein7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Faroe Islands
2.29
Liechtenstein
0.51

Faroe Islands creates 349% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Faroe Islands
2.00
Liechtenstein
0.42

allows per match

Faroe Islands
0.60
Liechtenstein
2.58

finishing

Faroe Islands+0.00on par
Liechtenstein+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faroe Islands ↓

Liechtenstein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Faroe Islands or draw
93%
Faroe Islands or Liechtenstein
84%
Draw or Liechtenstein
22%

Winning margin

Faroe Islands wins by 2+
54%
Liechtenstein wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Faroe Islands 1+ goals
90%
Faroe Islands 2+ goals
66%
Faroe Islands 3+ goals
40%
Liechtenstein 1+ goals
40%
Liechtenstein 2+ goals
9%
Liechtenstein 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Faroe Islands (draw refunded)
92%
Liechtenstein (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faroe Islands at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Liechtenstein away — creates 0.42, concedes 2.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faroe Islands attack 2.00 + Liechtenstein defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.29

Liechtenstein attack 0.42 + Faroe Islands defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Faroe Islands scores more
78%
level
16%
Liechtenstein scores more
7%

Faroe Islands at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Faroe Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Faroe Islands 3 – 0 Liechtenstein

Faroe Islands beat Liechtenstein 3-0 in Friendlies on March 25, 2018.

The match was played at Marbella Football Center - Sur 1 (Stadium) (San Pedro de Alcántara).