Liechtenstein 0–2 Andorra: Result & Stats

Liechtenstein

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Andorra

Joan Cervós 80'

Albert Rosas 4'

9/22/2022

UEFA Nations League · League D - 5Rheinpark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Liechtenstein46%

×Draw27%

Andorra27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiechtensteinExpected goals in this matchAndorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.97

Liechtenstein

1.37

Andorra

0.97

Liechtenstein creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

0.63

creates per match

0.44

1.50

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Liechtenstein

0.63

Andorra

0.44

allows per match

Liechtenstein

1.50

Andorra

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liechtenstein+0.00on par

Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liechtenstein ↓

Andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Liechtenstein or draw

73%

Liechtenstein or Andorra

73%

Draw or Andorra

54%

Winning margin

Liechtenstein wins by 2+

22%

Andorra wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Liechtenstein 1+ goals

75%

Liechtenstein 2+ goals

40%

Liechtenstein 3+ goals

16%

Andorra 1+ goals

62%

Andorra 2+ goals

25%

Andorra 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Liechtenstein (draw refunded)

63%

Andorra (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liechtenstein at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Andorra away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liechtenstein attack 0.63 + Andorra defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Andorra attack 0.44 + Liechtenstein defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Liechtenstein scores more

46%

level

27%

Andorra scores more

27%

Liechtenstein at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Liechtenstein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Álex Martínez

Andorra · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

Albert Rosas↳ Álex Martínez

23'

25'

35'

40'

43'

46'

46'

R. Kardesoglu← L. Meier

46'

F. Wolfinger← N. Frommelt

65'

Marc Vales

66'

Kiko Pomares← Marc Pujol

77'

M. Wolfinger← S. Lüchinger

77'

Víctor Bernat← Cucu

77'

Marc Rebés← Xavi Vieira

80'

Joan Cervós

84'

Jordi Rubio← Albert Rosas

84'

Márcio Vieira← Marc Vales

89'

Joan Cervós

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiechtensteinAndorra

Overview

62%Possession38%

5Total Shots9

0Corners1

15Fouls20

Shots

5Total Shots9

1On Target4

1Off Target4

3Blocked1

0Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

539Total Passes331

415Accurate Passes218

77%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls20

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1