Lida 1–2 ABFF U17: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Lida

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

ABFF U17

D. Khodyko 24'

D. Ovsyannikov 50'

A. Derzhinskiy 40'

7/5/2024

1. Division · Round 14Stadyen GSK Junatstva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lida48%

×Draw25%

ABFF U1728%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LidaExpected goals in this matchABFF U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.18

Lida

1.63

ABFF U17

1.18

Lida creates 38% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 17 away

1.60

creates per match

1.06

1.30

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Lida

1.60

ABFF U17

1.06

allows per match

Lida

1.30

ABFF U17

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lida+0.00on par

ABFF U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lida ↓

ABFF U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lida or draw

72%

Lida or ABFF U17

75%

Draw or ABFF U17

52%

Winning margin

Lida wins by 2+

25%

ABFF U17 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lida 1+ goals

80%

Lida 2+ goals

48%

Lida 3+ goals

22%

ABFF U17 1+ goals

69%

ABFF U17 2+ goals

33%

ABFF U17 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lida (draw refunded)

63%

ABFF U17 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lida at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 128 matches

ABFF U17 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lida attack 1.60 + ABFF U17 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

ABFF U17 attack 1.06 + Lida defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lida scores more

48%

level

25%

ABFF U17 scores more

28%

Lida at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

D. Khodyko

40'

A. Derzhinskiy

44'

V. Skomarovskiy

46'

M. Aleksandrov← I. Gubarevich

46'

N. Lyukevich← V. Skomarovskiy

50'

D. Ovsyannikov

61'

P. Bezrukov← S. Zhivushko

78'

P. Struk← D. Ovsyannikov

81'

82'

82'

85'

86'

E. Zaytsev← D. Kutsepalov

87'

A. Akatov← A. Stanul

89'

A. Lazarev

Lida

ABFF

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Dobrovolskiy

86'▲E. Zaytsev←▼D. Kutsepalov

Lida substitutes

ZaytsevYanushkoKhalyavitskiyZabelinBelovZaetsVasilenko

Manager: P. Evseenko

46'▲M. Aleksandrov←▼I. Gubarevich

46'▲N. Lyukevich←▼V. Skomarovskiy

61'▲P. Bezrukov←▼S. Zhivushko

78'▲P. Struk←▼D. Ovsyannikov

87'▲A. Akatov←▼A. Stanul

ABFF U17 substitutes

AleksandrovLyukevichBezrukovStrukAkatovGusevMishinAutkoChuprinskiyPulkach

Lida 1 – 2 ABFF U17

ABFF U17 beat Lida 2-1 in 1. Division on July 5, 2024.

Goals: D. Khodyko (24'), A. Derzhinskiy (40'), D. Ovsyannikov (50').

The match was played at Stadyen GSK Junatstva in Lida.

Lida vs ABFF U17 — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Lida 1 – 2 ABFF U17