ABFF U17 1–1 Lida: Result & Stats | 1. Division

ABFF U17

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lida

D. Leontyuk 90+2'

A. Burnos 46'

11/1/2024

1. Division · Round 31ABFF training center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ABFF U1731%

×Draw26%

Lida43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABFF U17Expected goals in this matchLida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.43

ABFF U17

1.18

Lida

1.43

Lida creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 128 away

0.76

creates per match

1.45

1.41

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

ABFF U17

0.76

Lida

1.45

allows per match

ABFF U17

1.41

Lida

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABFF U17+0.00on par

Lida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABFF U17 ↓

Lida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

ABFF U17 or draw

57%

ABFF U17 or Lida

74%

Draw or Lida

69%

Winning margin

ABFF U17 wins by 2+

13%

Lida wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

ABFF U17 1+ goals

69%

ABFF U17 2+ goals

33%

ABFF U17 3+ goals

12%

Lida 1+ goals

76%

Lida 2+ goals

42%

Lida 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

ABFF U17 (draw refunded)

42%

Lida (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABFF U17 at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Lida away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.59 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABFF U17 attack 0.76 + Lida defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.18

Lida attack 1.45 + ABFF U17 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ABFF U17 scores more

31%

level

26%

Lida scores more

43%

Lida at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

30'

42'

46'

56'

56'

V. Skomarovskiy← A. Derzhinskiy

57'

A. Radzhabov

60'

D. Slesarchuk← A. Burnos

63'

N. Romanov← M. Aleksandrov

68'

A. Stanul

85'

I. Verenich← P. Shevchenko

85'

T. Tkachev← G. Mishin

85'

D. Khodyko← K. Parmonov

90+2'

D. Leontyuk

ABFF

Lida

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Evseenko

56'▲B. Gusev←▼D. Volskiy

56'▲V. Skomarovskiy←▼A. Derzhinskiy

63'▲N. Romanov←▼M. Aleksandrov

85'▲I. Verenich←▼P. Shevchenko

85'▲T. Tkachev←▼G. Mishin

ABFF U17 substitutes

GusevSkomarovskiyRomanovVerenichTkachevAutkoSheremetChuprinskiyZhivushkoSakuta

Manager: A. Dobrovolskiy

60'▲D. Slesarchuk←▼A. Burnos

85'▲D. Khodyko←▼K. Parmonov

Lida substitutes

SlesarchukKhodykoSalygoYanushkoKhalyavitskiyKarpovichZaytsevBelovKovalyukZaets

ABFF U17 1 – 1 Lida

ABFF U17 and Lida drew 1-1 in 1. Division on November 1, 2024.

Goals: A. Burnos (46'), D. Leontyuk (90+2').

The match was played at ABFF training center in Minsk.

ABFF U17 vs Lida — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

ABFF U17 1 – 1 Lida