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Liberty Professionals vs Legon Cities — Premier League 2019

Liberty Professionals
Liberty Professionals
FT
1 – 0
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
W. Abraham 81' (pen)
1/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Dansoman Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Liberty Professionals49%
×Draw27%
Legon Cities24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liberty Professionals
1.44
Legon Cities
0.91

Liberty Professionals creates 58% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 93 away

creates per match

Liberty Professionals
1.50
Legon Cities
0.59

allows per match

Liberty Professionals
1.23
Legon Cities
1.38

finishing

Liberty Professionals+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liberty Professionals ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Liberty Professionals or draw
76%
Liberty Professionals or Legon Cities
73%
Draw or Legon Cities
51%

Winning margin

Liberty Professionals wins by 2+
24%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Liberty Professionals 1+ goals
76%
Liberty Professionals 2+ goals
42%
Liberty Professionals 3+ goals
18%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
60%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
23%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Liberty Professionals (draw refunded)
67%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liberty Professionals at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liberty Professionals attack 1.50 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Liberty Professionals defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Liberty Professionals scores more
49%
level
27%
Legon Cities scores more
24%

Liberty Professionals at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Liberty Professionals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Y. Fadili
25'
Y. Fadili
25'
Y. Fadili
46'
A. B. Foster← A. B. Foster
46'
D. Antwi← D. Antwi
50'
S. Ampaw
54'
M. Ansah
60'
M. Cudjoe
62'
S. Ahmed
67'
D. Amponsah← D. Amponsah
81'
W. AbrahamPenalty
90'
R. Ocloo← R. Ocloo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Liberty Professionals 1–0 Legon Cities

Liberty Professionals beat Legon Cities 1-0 in Premier League on January 3, 2021.

Goals: W. Abraham (81' pen).

The match was played at Dansoman Park in Accra.