Legon Cities 2–1 Liberty Professionals

Legon Cities

FT

2 – 1

Liberty Professionals

J. Attuquaye 90+2'

E. Owusu 86' (OG)

K. Karikari 80'

5/12/2021

Premier League · Round 24Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Legon Cities51%

×Draw28%

Liberty Professionals21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legon CitiesExpected goals in this matchLiberty Professionals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.78

Legon Cities

1.38

Liberty Professionals

0.78

Legon Cities creates 77% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 25 away

1.24

creates per match

0.68

0.88

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Legon Cities

1.24

Liberty Professionals

0.68

allows per match

Legon Cities

0.88

Liberty Professionals

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Liberty Professionals+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Liberty Professionals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw

79%

Legon Cities or Liberty Professionals

72%

Draw or Liberty Professionals

49%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+

25%

Liberty Professionals wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals

75%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

40%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

16%

Liberty Professionals 1+ goals

54%

Liberty Professionals 2+ goals

18%

Liberty Professionals 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

71%

Liberty Professionals (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Liberty Professionals away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Liberty Professionals defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Liberty Professionals attack 0.68 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Legon Cities scores more

51%

level

28%

Liberty Professionals scores more

21%

Legon Cities at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

S. Ahmed← S. Ahmed

40'

M. Ampadu

53'

S. Amofa

58'

B. Andoh← B. Andoh

65'

C. Doku← C. Doku

67'

C. Doku

72'

B. Mahama← B. Mahama

80'

K. Karikari

84'

H. Issaah← H. Issaah

86'

E. OwusuOwn goal

90+2'

J. Attuquaye

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff