Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Liberty Professionals vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

Liberty Professionals
Liberty Professionals
FT
1 – 1
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
E. Owusu 36'
I. Ganiyu 83'
5/16/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Dansoman Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Liberty Professionals40%
×Draw29%
Asante Kotoko31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liberty Professionals
1.18
Asante Kotoko
1.01

Liberty Professionals creates 17% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 109 away

creates per match

Liberty Professionals
1.48
Asante Kotoko
0.84

allows per match

Liberty Professionals
1.19
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

Liberty Professionals+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liberty Professionals ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Liberty Professionals or draw
69%
Liberty Professionals or Asante Kotoko
71%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
60%

Winning margin

Liberty Professionals wins by 2+
17%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Liberty Professionals 1+ goals
69%
Liberty Professionals 2+ goals
33%
Liberty Professionals 3+ goals
12%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
64%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
27%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Liberty Professionals (draw refunded)
56%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liberty Professionals at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liberty Professionals attack 1.48 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.18

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Liberty Professionals defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Liberty Professionals scores more
40%
level
29%
Asante Kotoko scores more
31%

Liberty Professionals at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Liberty Professionals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
M. Ansah
36'
E. Owusu
57'
M. Yussif← A. Latif
83'
I. Ganiyu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Liberty Professionals 1–1 Asante Kotoko

Liberty Professionals and Asante Kotoko drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 16, 2021.

Goals: E. Owusu (36'), I. Ganiyu (83').

The match was played at Dansoman Park in Accra.