Asante Kotoko vs Liberty Professionals — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
Asante Kotoko55%
Liberty Professionals18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Asante Kotoko creates 103% more chances
Season form · 110 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Asante Kotoko ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.65 · 110 matches
Liberty Professionals away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Liberty Professionals defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46
Liberty Professionals attack 0.79 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.72
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
Asante Kotoko at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Medeama
Bibiani Gold Stars
Hearts of Oak
Dreams
Aduana Stars
Samartex
Karela
Vision
Berekum ChelseaAsante Kotoko
Swedru All Blacks
Young Apostles
Nations
Bechem United
Basake Holy Stars
Heart of Lions
Hohoe United
Eleven WondersIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Asante Kotoko host Liberty Professionals on Monday, 11 January 2021 at 15:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Premier League: Asante Kotoko 2–0 Liberty Professionals
Asante Kotoko beat Liberty Professionals 2-0 in Premier League on January 11, 2021.
The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.