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Libertador FC vs Diamantes de Guayana — Segunda División 2018

Libertador FC
Libertador FC
FT
2 – 2
Diamantes de Guayana
Diamantes de Guayana
3/14/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 6Cancha la Guacamaya (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Libertador FC41%
×Draw27%
Diamantes de Guayana32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertador FC
1.34
Diamantes de Guayana
1.14

Libertador FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

Libertador FC
1.30
Diamantes de Guayana
1.09

allows per match

Libertador FC
1.19
Diamantes de Guayana
1.38

finishing

Libertador FC+0.00on par
Diamantes de Guayana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertador FC ↓

Diamantes de Guayana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Libertador FC or draw
68%
Libertador FC or Diamantes de Guayana
73%
Draw or Diamantes de Guayana
59%

Winning margin

Libertador FC wins by 2+
19%
Diamantes de Guayana wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Libertador FC 1+ goals
74%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
39%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
15%
Diamantes de Guayana 1+ goals
68%
Diamantes de Guayana 2+ goals
32%
Diamantes de Guayana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Libertador FC (draw refunded)
57%
Diamantes de Guayana (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertador FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Diamantes de Guayana away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertador FC attack 1.30 + Diamantes de Guayana defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Diamantes de Guayana attack 1.09 + Libertador FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Libertador FC scores more
41%
level
27%
Diamantes de Guayana scores more
32%

Libertador FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Libertador FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Libertador FC vs Diamantes de Guayana

Libertador FC and Diamantes de Guayana drew 2-2 in Segunda División on March 14, 2018.

The match was played at Cancha la Guacamaya (Caracas).