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Diamantes de Guayana vs Libertador FC — Segunda División 2018

Diamantes de Guayana
Diamantes de Guayana
FT
1 – 0
Libertador FC
Libertador FC
8/19/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 6Polideportivo Venalum (Puerto Ordaz, Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Diamantes de Guayana46%
×Draw29%
Libertador FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diamantes de Guayana
1.25
Libertador FC
0.83

Diamantes de Guayana creates 51% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 45 away

creates per match

Diamantes de Guayana
1.18
Libertador FC
0.73

allows per match

Diamantes de Guayana
0.94
Libertador FC
1.33

finishing

Diamantes de Guayana+0.00on par
Libertador FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diamantes de Guayana ↓

Libertador FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Diamantes de Guayana or draw
75%
Diamantes de Guayana or Libertador FC
71%
Draw or Libertador FC
54%

Winning margin

Diamantes de Guayana wins by 2+
21%
Libertador FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Diamantes de Guayana 1+ goals
71%
Diamantes de Guayana 2+ goals
36%
Diamantes de Guayana 3+ goals
13%
Libertador FC 1+ goals
56%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
20%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Diamantes de Guayana (draw refunded)
65%
Libertador FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diamantes de Guayana at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Libertador FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diamantes de Guayana attack 1.18 + Libertador FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Libertador FC attack 0.73 + Diamantes de Guayana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Diamantes de Guayana scores more
46%
level
29%
Libertador FC scores more
25%

Diamantes de Guayana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Diamantes de Guayana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Diamantes de Guayana 1–0 Libertador FC

Diamantes de Guayana beat Libertador FC 1-0 in Segunda División on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Polideportivo Venalum (Puerto Ordaz, Ciudad Guayana).