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Libertad vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026

Libertad
Libertad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
3/8/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 3Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Libertad36%
×Draw27%
LDU de Quito37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.23
LDU de Quito
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 136 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.31
LDU de Quito
1.37

allows per match

Libertad
1.15
LDU de Quito
1.15

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
63%
Libertad or LDU de Quito
73%
Draw or LDU de Quito
64%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
15%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
71%
Libertad 2+ goals
35%
Libertad 3+ goals
13%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
72%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
36%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
49%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.31 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Libertad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Libertad scores more
36%
level
27%
LDU de Quito scores more
37%

LDU de Quito at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Libertad vs LDU de Quito

Libertad beat LDU de Quito 2-1 in Liga Pro on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne in Loja.