LDU de Quito 0–0 Libertad: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Libertad

7/12/2026

Liga Pro · Round 18Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

LDU de Quito57%

×Draw23%

Libertad19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchLibertad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.90

LDU de Quito

1.75

Libertad

0.90

LDU de Quito creates 94% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 60 away

1.93

creates per match

0.92

0.88

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.93

Libertad

0.92

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.88

Libertad

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Libertad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

81%

LDU de Quito or Libertad

77%

Draw or Libertad

43%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

32%

Libertad wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

83%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

52%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

25%

Libertad 1+ goals

59%

Libertad 2+ goals

23%

Libertad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

75%

Libertad (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.93 + Libertad defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.75

Libertad attack 0.92 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

57%

level

23%

Libertad scores more

19%

LDU de Quito at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

J. Estacio

30'

L. Segovia

39'

DeyversonGoal Disallowed - offside

45+3'

R. Redes

46'

C. Valencia← J. Estacio

46'

R. Ade← L. Segovia

46'

DeyversonGoal Disallowed - offside

63'

D. Coronel← A. Chere

68'

C. Orejuela← V. Branda

69'

Y. Quinonez← J. Guisamano

72'

R. Mina← J. Carabali

72'

A. Alvarado← I. Zambrano

77'

Y. Quinonez

82'

J. Bravo← J. Bravo

85'

C. Luna Tobar← R. Redes

85'

A. Gomez← J. Pretell

90+7'

G. F. Allala Menendez

90+8'

Tiago Nunes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff