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Libertad vs Jorge Wilstermann — Primera División 2019

Libertad
Libertad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
2/19/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 3Estadio Gran Mamoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Libertad46%
×Draw27%
Jorge Wilstermann27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.44
Jorge Wilstermann
1.03

Libertad creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 123 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.35
Jorge Wilstermann
1.12

allows per match

Libertad
0.94
Jorge Wilstermann
1.52

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
73%
Libertad or Jorge Wilstermann
73%
Draw or Jorge Wilstermann
54%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
23%
Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
76%
Libertad 2+ goals
42%
Libertad 3+ goals
18%
Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
64%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
28%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
63%
Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.35 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.44

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.12 + Libertad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Libertad scores more
46%
level
27%
Jorge Wilstermann scores more
27%

Libertad at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Libertad 1–1 Jorge Wilstermann

Libertad and Jorge Wilstermann drew 1-1 in Primera División on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Gran Mamoré in Trinidad.