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Jorge Wilstermann vs Libertad — Primera División 2019

Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Libertad
Libertad
7/22/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 20Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann66%
×Draw19%
Libertad15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jorge Wilstermann
2.29
Libertad
0.98

Jorge Wilstermann creates 134% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 18 away

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.74
Libertad
0.83

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.14
Libertad
2.83

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par
Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw
85%
Jorge Wilstermann or Libertad
81%
Draw or Libertad
34%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
43%
Libertad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
90%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
66%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
40%
Libertad 1+ goals
62%
Libertad 2+ goals
26%
Libertad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
82%
Libertad (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.14 · 124 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.74 + Libertad defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.29

Libertad attack 0.83 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more
66%
level
19%
Libertad scores more
15%

Jorge Wilstermann at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jorge Wilstermann vs Libertad

Jorge Wilstermann beat Libertad 1-0 in Primera División on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.