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Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro 2026

Libertad
Libertad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
P. Gonzalez 82' (pen)
4/21/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 10Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Libertad46%
×Draw27%
Guayaquil City FC27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.39
Guayaquil City FC
0.98

Libertad creates 42% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 12 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.45
Guayaquil City FC
0.83

allows per match

Libertad
1.12
Guayaquil City FC
1.33

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
73%
Libertad or Guayaquil City FC
73%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
54%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
22%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
75%
Libertad 2+ goals
40%
Libertad 3+ goals
16%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
62%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
26%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
64%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.45 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.83 + Libertad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Libertad scores more
46%
level
27%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
27%

Libertad at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
D. ArroyoGuayaquil City FCGuayaquil City FC · M
7.6

Match Events

4'
Pablo Mancilla
45'
Bryan Caicedo
46'
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza← D. Coronel
46'
J. Guisamano← V. Branda
46'
S. Bueno← A. Chere
57'
Dixon Arroyo
60'
Roger Arias
67'
E. Caicedo← G. J. Cortez Casierra
71'
J. Ordonez← P. Mancilla
71'
K. Sambonino← D. Arroyo
79'
Kevin SamboninoPenalty confirmed
82'
P. GonzalezPenalty
84'
A. Naula← P. Gonzalez
87'
Damián Díaz
89'
E. Cabezas← R. Arias
89'
J. Vivar← D. Diaz

Possession

40%Libertad

Shots

12Libertad

Pass accuracy

49%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadGuayaquil
Overview
40%Possession60%
12Total Shots14
5Corners3
14Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots14
1On Target5
8Off Target8
3Blocked1
4Inside Box5
8Outside Box9
Passing
40%Possession60%
373Total Passes569
307Accurate Passes492
82%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls10
0Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC

Guayaquil City FC beat Libertad 1-0 in Liga Pro on April 21, 2026.

Goals: P. Gonzalez (82' pen).

Guayaquil City FC controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne in Loja.