Guayaquil City FC 1–1 Libertad: Result & Stats

Guayaquil City FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Libertad

M. Parrales 84'

R. Simisterra 53'

5/6/2023

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 9Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Guayaquil City FC38%

×Draw29%

Libertad32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guayaquil City FCExpected goals in this matchLibertad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.03

Guayaquil City FC

1.15

Libertad

1.03

Guayaquil City FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

0.91

creates per match

0.97

1.09

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC

0.91

Libertad

0.97

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC

1.09

Libertad

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Libertad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw

68%

Guayaquil City FC or Libertad

71%

Draw or Libertad

62%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

16%

Libertad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

68%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

32%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

11%

Libertad 1+ goals

64%

Libertad 2+ goals

28%

Libertad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

54%

Libertad (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.91 + Libertad defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Libertad attack 0.97 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more

38%

level

29%

Libertad scores more

32%

Guayaquil City FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Carlos Medina

40'

Arnaldo Valverde

46'

J. Ayovi← K. Sambonino

53'

R. Simisterra↳ S. Sosa

56'

62'

66'

68'

84'

85'

87'

90+5'

90+1'

90+1'

90+9'

Gabriel Marques← J. Humanante

90+9'

J. Narváez← M. Alonso

90+5'

J. Caicedo← A. Naula

90+5'

J. Bravo← F. Arbeláez

Shots

Statistics

GuayaquilLibertad

Overview

4Total Shots5

1Corners4

3Fouls7

Shots

4Total Shots5

3On Target3

1Off Target2

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

3Fouls7

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

Liga Pro: Guayaquil City FC 1–1 Libertad

Guayaquil City FC and Libertad drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on May 6, 2023.

Goals: R. Simisterra (53'), M. Parrales (84').

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt in Guayaquil.

Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Liga Pro: Guayaquil City FC 1–1 Libertad