Libertad vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 45+ matches
Libertad41%
Deportivo Cuenca31%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Libertad creates 21% more chances
Season form · 45 home / 45 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Libertad ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Libertad at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches
Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Libertad attack 1.33 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29
Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.96 + Libertad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Libertad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Deportivo Cuenca substitutes
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SCLibertad
Tecnico Universitario
Delfin SC
El Nacional
Aucas
MacaraDeportivo Cuenca
Imbabura
Cumbayá
EmelecIndependiente del ValleBarcelona SCLDU de QuitoAucasUniversidad CatolicaEmelecEl NacionalMushuc Runa SCMacaraDeportivo CuencaTecnico UniversitarioOrense SCCumbayáImbaburaDelfin SCLibertadIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Libertad host Deportivo Cuenca on Saturday, 5 July 2025 at 00:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2024/2025 season.
Match Recap: Libertad vs Deportivo Cuenca
Libertad beat Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 in Liga Pro on July 5, 2025.
Goals: A. Gomez (39', 60' o.g.), W. Ayovi (48').
Libertad controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 13.
The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne in Loja.