Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Libertad: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Libertad

D. Luna 62'

D. Ávila 82'

11/23/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 14Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca48%

×Draw26%

Libertad26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchLibertad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.03

Deportivo Cuenca

1.49

Libertad

1.03

Deportivo Cuenca creates 45% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 46 away

1.52

creates per match

0.91

1.16

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.52

Libertad

0.91

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.16

Libertad

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Libertad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

74%

Deportivo Cuenca or Libertad

74%

Draw or Libertad

52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

24%

Libertad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

44%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

19%

Libertad 1+ goals

64%

Libertad 2+ goals

28%

Libertad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

65%

Libertad (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.52 + Libertad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.49

Libertad attack 0.91 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

48%

level

26%

Libertad scores more

26%

Deportivo Cuenca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Mancinelli

Deportivo Cuenca · M

8.0

Match Events

37'

Denilson Bolanos

46'

L. Angulo← L. Gómez

52'

Libinton Angulo

62'

D. Luna↳ L. Mancinelli

67'

D. Noboa← V. Branda

69'

W. Bardales← D. Bolaños

69'

E. Caicedo← N. Caicedo

77'

82'

90+2'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoLibertad

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots12

6Corners6

19Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots12

1On Target4

7Off Target4

2Blocked4

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

312Total Passes256

222Accurate Passes163

71%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0