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Libertad vs Aucas — Liga Pro 2026

Libertad
Libertad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aucas
Aucas
E. Caicedo 15'
J. Blanco 68'
10/26/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 11Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Libertad41%
×Draw27%
Aucas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.37
Aucas
1.17

Libertad creates 17% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 131 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.30
Aucas
1.21

allows per match

Libertad
1.13
Aucas
1.44

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Aucas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Aucas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
68%
Libertad or Aucas
73%
Draw or Aucas
59%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
19%
Aucas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
75%
Libertad 2+ goals
40%
Libertad 3+ goals
16%
Aucas 1+ goals
69%
Aucas 2+ goals
33%
Aucas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
56%
Aucas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.13 · 60 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.44 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.30 + Aucas defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37

Aucas attack 1.21 + Libertad defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Libertad scores more
41%
level
27%
Aucas scores more
32%

Libertad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. BlancoAucasAucas · F
8.2

Match Events

15'
E. Caicedo↳ N. Caicedo
63'
W. Bardales← D. Bolaños
67'
Nixon Molina
68'
J. Blanco
71'
D. Ávila← N. Caicedo
76'
R. Briones← C. Zambrano
79'
Renny Jaramillo
82'
R. Quiñónez← R. Jaramillo
85'
Bryan Caicedo
90+4'
Byron Carabalí

Possession

51%Libertad

Shots

15Libertad

Pass accuracy

50%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadAucas
Overview
51%Possession49%
15Total Shots16
6Corners6
19Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots16
4On Target5
7Off Target7
4Blocked4
13Inside Box13
2Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
285Total Passes274
212Accurate Passes202
74%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls17
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Libertad vs Aucas

Libertad and Aucas drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on October 26, 2024.

Goals: E. Caicedo (15'), J. Blanco (68').

Libertad controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne in Loja.