Aucas 2–0 Libertad: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Aucas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Libertad

J. Mina 60'

A. Mina 1'

5/6/2025

Liga Pro · Round 11Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Aucas61%

×Draw23%

Libertad16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AucasExpected goals in this matchLibertad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.74

Aucas

1.73

Libertad

0.74

Aucas creates 134% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.36

creates per match

0.79

0.70

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Aucas

1.36

Libertad

0.79

allows per match

Aucas

0.70

Libertad

2.11

+1.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Aucas+1.14scores more

Libertad+0.09on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

Libertad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Aucas or draw

84%

Aucas or Libertad

77%

Draw or Libertad

39%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+

35%

Libertad wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals

82%

Aucas 2+ goals

52%

Aucas 3+ goals

25%

Libertad 1+ goals

52%

Libertad 2+ goals

17%

Libertad 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)

80%

Libertad (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.70 · 8 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.11 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.36 + Libertad defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

Libertad attack 0.79 + Aucas defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Aucas scores more

61%

level

23%

Libertad scores more

16%

Aucas at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Mina

Aucas · M

8.5

Match Events

1'

A. Mina

55'

M. A. Carcelen Carabali← J. Vazquez

60'

J. Mina↳ B. Montenegro

72'

A. Quinonez← N. Caicedo

72'

Y. Quinonez← W. Ayovi

77'

Wagner Bardales

83'

Jonnathan MinaPenalty confirmed

85'

Wagner Bardales

85'

Wagner Bardales

87'

D. Bolanos← E. Caicedo

90+1'

V. Olaya← R. Briones

90+1'

J. Canales← E. Segura

90'

E. Gruezo← J. Ontaneda

90'

T. Serpa← B. Montenegro

90+3'

J. Humanante← J. Montano

90+3'

E. Lastre← C. Arboleda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AucasLibertad

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots14

3Corners6

9Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots14

5On Target4

7Off Target4

3Blocked6

12Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

365Total Passes367

297Accurate Passes302

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2