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Libertad vs America de Quito — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Libertad
Libertad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
America de Quito
America de Quito
C. Enciso 69'
K. Hoyos 60'
10/2/2022Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 31Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Libertad47%
×Draw27%
America de Quito26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.39
America de Quito
0.97

Libertad creates 43% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 85 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.50
America de Quito
1.05

allows per match

Libertad
0.89
America de Quito
1.28

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
America de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

America de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
74%
Libertad or America de Quito
73%
Draw or America de Quito
53%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
22%
America de Quito wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
75%
Libertad 2+ goals
40%
Libertad 3+ goals
16%
America de Quito 1+ goals
62%
America de Quito 2+ goals
25%
America de Quito 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
64%
America de Quito (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

America de Quito away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.50 + America de Quito defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

America de Quito attack 1.05 + Libertad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Libertad scores more
47%
level
27%
America de Quito scores more
26%

Libertad at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
K. Hoyos
69'
C. Enciso

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Libertad vs America de Quito

Libertad and America de Quito drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 2, 2022.

Goals: K. Hoyos (60'), C. Enciso (69').

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne in Loja.