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America de Quito vs Libertad — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

America de Quito
America de Quito
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Libertad
Libertad
K. Hoyos 89'
J. Pérez 89'
J. Folleco 28'
M. Tello 3'
3/27/2022Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 3Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

America de Quito45%
×Draw28%
Libertad27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Quito
1.32
Libertad
0.95

America de Quito creates 39% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 18 away

creates per match

America de Quito
1.48
Libertad
1.06

allows per match

America de Quito
0.84
Libertad
1.17

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par
Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw
73%
America de Quito or Libertad
72%
Draw or Libertad
55%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+
21%
Libertad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals
73%
America de Quito 2+ goals
38%
America de Quito 3+ goals
15%
Libertad 1+ goals
61%
Libertad 2+ goals
25%
Libertad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)
63%
Libertad (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Libertad away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.48 + Libertad defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.32

Libertad attack 1.06 + America de Quito defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

America de Quito scores more
45%
level
28%
Libertad scores more
27%

America de Quito at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
M. Tello
28'
J. Folleco
87'
89'
K. Hoyos
89'
J. Pérez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: America de Quito 4–0 Libertad

America de Quito beat Libertad 4-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 27, 2022.

Goals: M. Tello (3'), J. Folleco (28'), K. Hoyos (89'), J. Pérez (89').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.