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Libertad vs Always Ready — Primera División 2019

Libertad
Libertad
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Always Ready
Always Ready
7/15/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 19Estadio Gran Mamoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Libertad42%
×Draw26%
Always Ready32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.43
Always Ready
1.22

Libertad creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 129 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.35
Always Ready
1.50

allows per match

Libertad
0.94
Always Ready
1.51

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Always Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
68%
Libertad or Always Ready
74%
Draw or Always Ready
58%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
20%
Always Ready wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
76%
Libertad 2+ goals
42%
Libertad 3+ goals
17%
Always Ready 1+ goals
70%
Always Ready 2+ goals
34%
Always Ready 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
57%
Always Ready (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.51 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.35 + Always Ready defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Always Ready attack 1.50 + Libertad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Libertad scores more
42%
level
26%
Always Ready scores more
32%

Libertad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Libertad 1–2 Always Ready

Always Ready beat Libertad 2-1 in Primera División on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Gran Mamoré in Trinidad.