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Always Ready vs Libertad — Primera División 2019

Always Ready
Always Ready
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Libertad
Libertad
2/10/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 2Estadio Municipal El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Always Ready76%
×Draw15%
Libertad10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Always Ready
2.71
Libertad
0.86

Always Ready creates 215% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 18 away

creates per match

Always Ready
2.58
Libertad
0.83

allows per match

Always Ready
0.89
Libertad
2.83

finishing

Always Ready+0.00on par
Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Always Ready ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Always Ready or draw
90%
Always Ready or Libertad
85%
Draw or Libertad
24%

Winning margin

Always Ready wins by 2+
55%
Libertad wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Always Ready 1+ goals
93%
Always Ready 2+ goals
75%
Always Ready 3+ goals
50%
Libertad 1+ goals
58%
Libertad 2+ goals
21%
Libertad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Always Ready (draw refunded)
89%
Libertad (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Always Ready at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.89 · 129 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Always Ready attack 2.58 + Libertad defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.71

Libertad attack 0.83 + Always Ready defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Always Ready scores more
76%
level
15%
Libertad scores more
10%

Always Ready at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Always Ready vs Libertad

Always Ready beat Libertad 5-0 in Primera División on February 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Alto in El Alto.