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Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
M. Espinoza 58'
A. Samudio 23'
8/15/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Libertad Asuncion33%
×Draw30%
Sportivo Ameliano37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.00
Sportivo Ameliano
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.00
Sportivo Ameliano
1.17

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.00
Sportivo Ameliano
1.00

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
63%
Libertad Asuncion or Sportivo Ameliano
70%
Draw or Sportivo Ameliano
67%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
12%
Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
63%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
26%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
8%
Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
66%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
29%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
47%
Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.00 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.17 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
33%
level
30%
Sportivo Ameliano scores more
37%

Sportivo Ameliano at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
M. FernándezLibertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion · F
8.2

Match Events

12'
L. Cardozo← N. Giménez
16'
Francisco Báez
23'
A. Samudio
26'
Aldo Maiz
29'
Alberto Contrera
46'
C. Ocampos← R. Torales
54'
Brian Benitez
54'
R. Santa Cruz← Ó. Cardozo
55'
G. Aguilar← B. Merlini
55'
R. Villalba← L. Melgarejo
58'
Gustavo Aguilar
58'
M. Espinoza↳ M. Fernández
59'
Nicolás Rossi
62'
Hernesto Caballero
70'
Marcelo Fernandez
72'
R. Salinas← A. Samudio
73'
S. Fretes← I. Valdez
73'
B. Barja← A. Contrera
76'
Ó. Romero← A. Maíz
80'
R. Lezcano← L. Sanabria

Possession

61%Libertad

Shots

11Libertad

Pass accuracy

52%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadSportivo
Overview
61%Possession39%
11Total Shots9
11Corners0
12Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots9
7On Target3
3Off Target3
1Blocked3
6Inside Box4
5Outside Box5
Passing
61%Possession39%
490Total Passes309
389Accurate Passes222
79%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls14
3Yellow Cards5
3Offsides3

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Sportivo Ameliano

Libertad Asuncion and Sportivo Ameliano drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 15, 2024.

Goals: A. Samudio (23'), M. Espinoza (58').

Libertad Asuncion controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.