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Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
3/10/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 9Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Libertad Asuncion51%
×Draw26%
Sportivo Ameliano23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.48
Sportivo Ameliano
0.90

Libertad Asuncion creates 64% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 55 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.85
Sportivo Ameliano
1.04

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.76
Sportivo Ameliano
1.11

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
77%
Libertad Asuncion or Sportivo Ameliano
74%
Draw or Sportivo Ameliano
49%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
26%
Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
77%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
43%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
19%
Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
59%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
23%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
69%
Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.85 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.04 + Libertad Asuncion defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
51%
level
26%
Sportivo Ameliano scores more
23%

Libertad Asuncion at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Libertad Asuncion 4 – 1 Sportivo Ameliano

Libertad Asuncion beat Sportivo Ameliano 4-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Tigo La Huerta in Asunción.