Libertad Asuncion 2–1 Olimpia: Result & Stats

Libertad Asuncion

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Olimpia

M. Fernández 90+2'

L. Melgarejo 36'

I. Leguizamón 3'

3/15/2025

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 9Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Libertad Asuncion42%

×Draw28%

Olimpia30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Libertad AsuncionExpected goals in this matchOlimpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.05

Libertad Asuncion

1.28

Olimpia

1.05

Libertad Asuncion creates 22% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

1.65

creates per match

1.23

0.87

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion

1.65

Olimpia

1.23

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion

0.87

Olimpia

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Olimpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw

70%

Libertad Asuncion or Olimpia

72%

Draw or Olimpia

58%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

19%

Olimpia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

72%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

37%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

14%

Olimpia 1+ goals

65%

Olimpia 2+ goals

28%

Olimpia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

58%

Olimpia (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.65 + Olimpia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.28

Olimpia attack 1.23 + Libertad Asuncion defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more

42%

level

28%

Olimpia scores more

30%

Libertad Asuncion at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

I. Leguizamón↳ D. González

24'

D. Benedetto← D. González

27'

32'

34'

36'

45+2'

45+2'

62'

M. Fernández← Á. Campuzano

62'

R. Santa Cruz← Ó. Cardozo

63'

C. Olmedo

72'

E. López← I. Leguizamón

77'

Á. Lucena← H. Martínez

77'

A. Alcaraz← L. Melgarejo

82'

E. Lopez

84'

G. Aguilar← I. Franco

84'

L. Pratto← H. Fernández

90+2'

M. Fernández↳ A. Alcaraz

Libertad

Olimpia

25

2

22

11

36

21

6

7

▼

Fernández

18

Domínguez

29

⚽

▼

Leguizamó

10

A

▼

12

5

2

17

4

10

⚽

▼

Melgarejo

6

▼

Campuzano

26

Caballero

18

▼

Franco

22

▼

Martínez

7

▼

Cardozo

Manager: S. Aquino

62'▲M. Fernández←▼Á. Campuzano

62'▲R. Santa Cruz←▼Ó. Cardozo

77'▲Á. Lucena←▼H. Martínez

77'▲A. Alcaraz←▼L. Melgarejo

84'▲G. Aguilar←▼I. Franco

Libertad Asuncion substitutes

28Fernández24Cruz15Lucena20Alcaraz11Aguilar14Fretes32Villalba31Gutiérrez3Cáceres1Silva27Jacquet33Guiñazú

Manager: M. Palermo

24'▲D. Benedetto←▼D. González

72'▲E. López←▼I. Leguizamón

84'▲L. Pratto←▼H. Fernández

Olimpia substitutes

9Benedetto32López19Pratto26Maciel30Benítez23Espínola16Paredes20Bareiro3Benítez13Verza33Morinigo38Montiel