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Libertad Asuncion vs Club Guarani — League #252 2026

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Club Guarani
Club Guarani
D. Rodriguez 63'
Jhon Sanchez 50', 30'
A. Manzur 45' (pen)
8/25/2025League #252League #252 · Clausura - 9Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Libertad Asuncion33%
×Draw30%
Club Guarani37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.02
Club Guarani
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.10
Club Guarani
1.25

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.91
Club Guarani
0.94

finishing

Libertad Asuncion-0.10scores less
Club Guarani+0.61scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Club Guarani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
63%
Libertad Asuncion or Club Guarani
70%
Draw or Club Guarani
67%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
13%
Club Guarani wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
64%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
27%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
8%
Club Guarani 1+ goals
66%
Club Guarani 2+ goals
29%
Club Guarani 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
48%
Club Guarani (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.91 · 6 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.94 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.10 + Club Guarani defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Club Guarani attack 1.25 + Libertad Asuncion defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
33%
level
30%
Club Guarani scores more
37%

Club Guarani at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
Jhon SanchezClub GuaraniClub Guarani · F
8.3

Match Events

30'
Jhon Sanchez↳ A. J. Benitez Cabrera
36'
N. Gimenez← R. Rojas
38'
Alcides Barbotte
45'
A. ManzurPenalty
50'
Jhon Sanchez
54'
H. Martinez← L. Sanabria
54'
O. Cardozo← L. Melgarejo
63'
D. Rodriguez
65'
J. Recalde← G. Aguilar
65'
R. Villalba← H. Fernandez
71'
L. Gomez← A. Manzur
71'
C. E. Mino Amarilla← D. Rodriguez
72'
Hernesto Caballero
76'
Matías Espinoza
78'
R. Torales← I. Ramirez
79'
G. Gomez← A. Maiz
79'
W. Mendieta← Jhon Sanchez

Possession

51%Libertad

Shots

6Libertad

Pass accuracy

50%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadClub
Overview
51%Possession49%
6Total Shots14
0.62Expected Goals (xG)1.51
1Corners4
17Fouls6
Shots
6Total Shots14
3On Target7
2Off Target5
1Blocked2
4Inside Box7
2Outside Box7
Passing
51%Possession49%
406Total Passes393
315Accurate Passes304
78%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls6
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

League #252: Libertad Asuncion 0–4 Club Guarani

Club Guarani beat Libertad Asuncion 4-0 in League #252 on August 25, 2025.

Goals: Jhon Sanchez (30', 50'), A. Manzur (45' pen), D. Rodriguez (63').

Libertad Asuncion controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Tigo La Huerta in Asuncion.