Club Guarani 1–2 Libertad Asuncion: Result & Stats

Club Guarani

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Libertad Asuncion

A. Manzur 45' (pen)

R. Rojas 88'

H. Fernandez 70' (pen)

11/9/2025

League #252 · Clausura - 20Estadio Rogelio Livieres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Club Guarani43%

×Draw27%

Libertad Asuncion30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club GuaraniExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Club Guarani

1.36

Libertad Asuncion

1.10

Club Guarani creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.46

creates per match

1.20

1.01

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Club Guarani

1.46

Libertad Asuncion

1.20

allows per match

Club Guarani

1.01

Libertad Asuncion

1.26

+0.54scores more than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Club Guarani+0.54scores more

Libertad Asuncion-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw

70%

Club Guarani or Libertad Asuncion

73%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

57%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+

20%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals

74%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

39%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

16%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

67%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

30%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

59%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.01 · 5 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.26 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.46 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.20 + Club Guarani defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Club Guarani scores more

43%

level

27%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

30%

Club Guarani at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

R. Rojas

Libertad Asuncion · D

7.7

Match Events

14'

Derlis RodríguezGoal cancelled

27'

Alcides Benítez

45+4'

Matías Espinoza

45'

A. ManzurPenalty

55'

Thiago Servin

60'

Diego Viera

62'

Fernando Fernández

62'

R. Villalba← I. Franco

62'

O. Acuna← A. Cardozo Lucena

65'

Lorenzo Melgarejo

69'

Hugo FernándezPenalty confirmed

70'

H. FernandezPenalty

74'

R. Torales← A. Maiz

78'

Fernando FernándezGoal cancelled

82'

D. Fernandez← Jhon Sanchez

87'

A. Campuzano← H. Fernandez

88'

R. Rojas↳ R. Villalba

90+5'

Rodrigo Villalba

90+1'

C. E. Mino Amarilla← T. Servin

90+1'

O. Alfonso← L. Martinez

90+4'

O. Cardozo← L. Melgarejo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubLibertad

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots8

1.54Expected Goals (xG)1.93

4Corners3

14Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target2

4Off Target3

2Blocked3

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box1

Passing

46%Possession54%

252Total Passes299

162Accurate Passes209

64%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2