Libertad Asuncion 3–1 Atlético Tembetary

Libertad Asuncion

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Tembetary

C. R. Santa 79'

G. Aguilar 61'

L. Melgarejo 52'

N. Marotta 35'

7/31/2025

League #252 · Clausura - 5Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Libertad Asuncion48%

×Draw30%

Atlético Tembetary23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Libertad AsuncionExpected goals in this matchAtlético Tembetary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.76

Libertad Asuncion

1.24

Atlético Tembetary

0.76

Libertad Asuncion creates 63% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

0.82

creates per match

0.33

1.18

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion

0.82

Atlético Tembetary

0.33

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion

1.18

Atlético Tembetary

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Atlético Tembetary+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Atlético Tembetary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw

77%

Libertad Asuncion or Atlético Tembetary

70%

Draw or Atlético Tembetary

52%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

22%

Atlético Tembetary wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

71%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

35%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

13%

Atlético Tembetary 1+ goals

53%

Atlético Tembetary 2+ goals

18%

Atlético Tembetary 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

68%

Atlético Tembetary (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Atlético Tembetary away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.82 + Atlético Tembetary defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Atlético Tembetary attack 0.33 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more

48%

level

30%

Atlético Tembetary scores more

23%

Libertad Asuncion at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

H. Fernandez

Libertad Asuncion · M

8.0

Match Events

12'

Hugo FernándezGoal cancelled

29'

Francisco Esteche

31'

Robert Rojas

35'

N. Marotta↳ G. Gudino

46'

L. Melgarejo← J. Bogarin

52'

L. Melgarejo↳ H. Fernandez

60'

W. Candia← R. Rojas

60'

C. Favero← G. Gudino

61'

G. Aguilar↳ M. Jacquet

69'

E. Perez← J. F. Esteche

69'

O. Barreto← C. Mercado

75'

C. R. Santa← G. Aguilar

76'

M. Fernandez← I. Franco

79'

C. R. Santa↳ H. Fernandez

82'

Edgar Ferreira

83'

A. Troche← R. Rojas

83'

J. Recalde← H. Fernandez

87'

A. Gomez← P. Charpentier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LibertadAtlético

Overview

73%Possession27%

15Total Shots10

2.18Expected Goals (xG)0.98

8Corners4

14Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots10

5On Target3

8Off Target3

2Blocked4

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box6

Passing

73%Possession27%

519Total Passes192

429Accurate Passes113

83%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3