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Atlético Tembetary vs Libertad Asuncion — League #252 2026

Atlético Tembetary
Atlético Tembetary
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
P. Charpentier 90'
W. Candia 15'
H. Fernandez 45'
10/11/2025League #252League #252 · Clausura - 16Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlético Tembetary30%
×Draw24%
Libertad Asuncion46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tembetary
1.27
Libertad Asuncion
1.65

Libertad Asuncion creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atlético Tembetary
1.33
Libertad Asuncion
1.64

allows per match

Atlético Tembetary
1.67
Libertad Asuncion
1.21

finishing

Atlético Tembetary+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tembetary ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atlético Tembetary or draw
54%
Atlético Tembetary or Libertad Asuncion
76%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
70%

Winning margin

Atlético Tembetary wins by 2+
12%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Atlético Tembetary 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Tembetary 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Tembetary 3+ goals
14%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
81%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
49%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tembetary (draw refunded)
39%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tembetary at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tembetary attack 1.33 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.64 + Atlético Tembetary defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlético Tembetary scores more
30%
level
24%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
46%

Libertad Asuncion at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
N. MarottaAtlético TembetaryAtlético Tembetary · D
7.7

Match Events

10'
Hernesto CaballeroCard upgrade
11'
Hernesto Caballero
15'
W. Candia↳ J. F. Esteche
17'
A. Campuzano← O. Cardozo
38'
Néstor Giménez
44'
R. Rios← R. Rojas
45'
H. Fernandez
46'
I. Franco← M. Fernandez
56'
E. Perez← D. Zarate
56'
G. Gudino← J. F. Esteche
74'
A. Troche← R. Rojas
78'
I. Ortiz← W. Candia
78'
A. Cristaldo← W. Alonso
80'
G. Aguilar← O. Acuna
80'
H. Martinez← M. Espinoza
81'
Denis Colmán
90'
P. Charpentier↳ A. Cristaldo

Possession

47%Atlético

Shots

14Atlético

Pass accuracy

51%Atlético

Statistics

AtléticoLibertad
Overview
47%Possession53%
14Total Shots10
1.27Expected Goals (xG)1.23
1Corners1
14Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots10
4On Target4
9Off Target5
1Blocked1
9Inside Box5
5Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
404Total Passes462
333Accurate Passes369
82%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards1
6Offsides1

Match Recap: Atlético Tembetary vs Libertad Asuncion

Atlético Tembetary beat Libertad Asuncion 2-1 in League #252 on October 11, 2025.

Goals: W. Candia (15'), H. Fernandez (45'), P. Charpentier (90').

Libertad Asuncion controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni in Asunción.