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Libertad Asuncion vs 3 de Febrero — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
5/10/2018Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Round 16Estadio Dr. Nicolás Leoz (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Libertad Asuncion62%
×Draw22%
3 de Febrero16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.88
3 de Febrero
0.83

Libertad Asuncion creates 127% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 11 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.85
3 de Febrero
0.91

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.76
3 de Febrero
1.91

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

3 de Febrero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
84%
Libertad Asuncion or 3 de Febrero
78%
Draw or 3 de Febrero
38%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
37%
3 de Febrero wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
85%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
56%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
29%
3 de Febrero 1+ goals
56%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
20%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
79%
3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.85 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.88

3 de Febrero attack 0.91 + Libertad Asuncion defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
62%
level
22%
3 de Febrero scores more
16%

Libertad Asuncion at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Libertad Asuncion vs 3 de Febrero

Libertad Asuncion beat 3 de Febrero 2-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on May 10, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Nicolás Leoz (Asunción).