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3 de Febrero vs Libertad Asuncion — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
3/4/2018Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Round 5Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

3 de Febrero22%
×Draw23%
Libertad Asuncion55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.04
Libertad Asuncion
1.79

Libertad Asuncion creates 72% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 97 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.00
Libertad Asuncion
1.84

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.73
Libertad Asuncion
1.07

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
45%
3 de Febrero or Libertad Asuncion
77%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
78%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
8%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
65%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
28%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
9%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
83%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
53%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
29%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.00 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.84 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
22%
level
23%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
55%

Libertad Asuncion at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 3 de Febrero vs Libertad Asuncion

Libertad Asuncion beat 3 de Febrero 4-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 4, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este).