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Liberia vs Congo DR — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Liberia
Liberia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Congo DR
Congo DR
9/9/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex (Monrovia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Liberia38%
×Draw31%
Congo DR31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liberia
1.06
Congo DR
0.94

Liberia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Liberia
1.33
Congo DR
1.20

allows per match

Liberia
0.67
Congo DR
0.80

finishing

Liberia+0.00on par
Congo DR+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liberia ↓

Congo DR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Liberia or draw
69%
Liberia or Congo DR
69%
Draw or Congo DR
62%

Winning margin

Liberia wins by 2+
15%
Congo DR wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Liberia 1+ goals
65%
Liberia 2+ goals
29%
Liberia 3+ goals
9%
Congo DR 1+ goals
61%
Congo DR 2+ goals
24%
Congo DR 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Liberia (draw refunded)
55%
Congo DR (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liberia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Congo DR away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liberia attack 1.33 + Congo DR defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Congo DR attack 1.20 + Liberia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Liberia scores more
38%
level
31%
Congo DR scores more
31%

Liberia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Liberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liberia vs Congo DR

Liberia and Congo DR drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex (Monrovia).