Congo DR 1–0 Liberia: Result & Stats

Congo DR

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Liberia

3/24/2019

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 7Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte (Kinshasa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Congo DR66%

×Draw21%

Liberia13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Congo DRExpected goals in this matchLiberia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.67

Congo DR

1.88

Liberia

0.67

Congo DR creates 181% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.43

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Congo DR

1.43

Liberia

0.33

allows per match

Congo DR

1.00

Liberia

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Congo DR+0.00on par

Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Congo DR ↓

Liberia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Congo DR or draw

87%

Congo DR or Liberia

79%

Draw or Liberia

34%

Winning margin

Congo DR wins by 2+

40%

Liberia wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Congo DR 1+ goals

85%

Congo DR 2+ goals

56%

Congo DR 3+ goals

29%

Liberia 1+ goals

49%

Liberia 2+ goals

15%

Liberia 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Congo DR (draw refunded)

84%

Liberia (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Congo DR at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Liberia away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Congo DR attack 1.43 + Liberia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.88

Liberia attack 0.33 + Congo DR defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Congo DR scores more

66%

level

21%

Liberia scores more

13%

Congo DR at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Congo DR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff