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Liberia vs Congo — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Liberia
Liberia
FT
2 – 1
Congo
Congo
10/16/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 5Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex (Monrovia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Liberia65%
×Draw22%
Congo13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liberia
1.83
Congo
0.67

Liberia creates 173% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Liberia
1.33
Congo
0.67

allows per match

Liberia
0.67
Congo
2.33

finishing

Liberia+0.00on par
Congo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liberia ↓

Congo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Liberia or draw
87%
Liberia or Congo
78%
Draw or Congo
35%

Winning margin

Liberia wins by 2+
39%
Congo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Liberia 1+ goals
84%
Liberia 2+ goals
54%
Liberia 3+ goals
28%
Congo 1+ goals
49%
Congo 2+ goals
15%
Congo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Liberia (draw refunded)
83%
Congo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liberia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Congo away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liberia attack 1.33 + Congo defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Congo attack 0.67 + Liberia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Liberia scores more
65%
level
22%
Congo scores more
13%

Liberia at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Liberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Liberia 2–1 Congo

Liberia beat Congo 2-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on October 16, 2018.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex (Monrovia).