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Congo vs Liberia — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Congo
Congo
FT
3 – 1
Liberia
Liberia
10/11/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 4Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat (Brazzaville)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Congo69%
×Draw20%
Liberia12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Congo
2.00
Liberia
0.67

Congo creates 199% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Congo
1.67
Liberia
0.33

allows per match

Congo
1.00
Liberia
2.33

finishing

Congo+0.00on par
Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Congo ↓

Liberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Congo or draw
88%
Congo or Liberia
80%
Draw or Liberia
31%

Winning margin

Congo wins by 2+
43%
Liberia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Congo 1+ goals
86%
Congo 2+ goals
59%
Congo 3+ goals
32%
Liberia 1+ goals
49%
Liberia 2+ goals
15%
Liberia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Congo (draw refunded)
86%
Liberia (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Congo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Liberia away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Congo attack 1.67 + Liberia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Liberia attack 0.33 + Congo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Congo scores more
69%
level
20%
Liberia scores more
12%

Congo at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Congo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Congo 3–1 Liberia

Congo beat Liberia 3-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on October 11, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat (Brazzaville).