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Sabana vs Bougouni — Première Division 2019

Sabana
Sabana
FT
0 – 3
Bougouni
Bougouni
6/12/2016Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 10Stade Baréma Bocoum (Mopti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sabana35%
×Draw29%
Bougouni36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabana
1.10
Bougouni
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 79 away

creates per match

Sabana
0.67
Bougouni
0.58

allows per match

Sabana
1.67
Bougouni
1.54

finishing

Sabana+0.00on par
Bougouni+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabana ↓

Bougouni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sabana or draw
64%
Sabana or Bougouni
71%
Draw or Bougouni
65%

Winning margin

Sabana wins by 2+
14%
Bougouni wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sabana 1+ goals
67%
Sabana 2+ goals
30%
Sabana 3+ goals
10%
Bougouni 1+ goals
68%
Bougouni 2+ goals
31%
Bougouni 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sabana (draw refunded)
49%
Bougouni (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabana at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Bougouni away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabana attack 0.67 + Bougouni defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bougouni attack 0.58 + Sabana defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sabana scores more
35%
level
29%
Bougouni scores more
36%

Bougouni at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bougouni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabana vs Bougouni

Bougouni beat Sabana 3-0 in Première Division on June 12, 2016.

The match was played at Stade Baréma Bocoum (Mopti).