Bougouni 2–0 Sabana: Result & Stats

Bougouni

FT

2 – 0

Sabana

9/7/2020

Première Division · Relegation Round - 2Stade 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bougouni62%

×Draw22%

Sabana16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BougouniExpected goals in this matchSabana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.84

Bougouni

1.87

Sabana

0.84

Bougouni creates 123% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

1.01

creates per match

0.67

1.01

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Bougouni

1.01

Sabana

0.67

allows per match

Bougouni

1.01

Sabana

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bougouni+0.00on par

Sabana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bougouni ↓

Sabana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bougouni or draw

84%

Bougouni or Sabana

78%

Draw or Sabana

38%

Winning margin

Bougouni wins by 2+

36%

Sabana wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bougouni 1+ goals

85%

Bougouni 2+ goals

56%

Bougouni 3+ goals

29%

Sabana 1+ goals

57%

Sabana 2+ goals

21%

Sabana 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bougouni (draw refunded)

79%

Sabana (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bougouni at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

Sabana away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bougouni attack 1.01 + Sabana defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.87

Sabana attack 0.67 + Bougouni defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bougouni scores more

62%

level

22%

Sabana scores more

16%

Bougouni at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bougouni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff