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liaoning hongyun FC vs Hangzhou Greentown — League One 2018

liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
4/20/2019League OneLeague One · Round 6Tiexi New District Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC27%
×Draw25%
Hangzhou Greentown48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

liaoning hongyun FC
1.15
Hangzhou Greentown
1.60

Hangzhou Greentown creates 39% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 56 away

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.17
Hangzhou Greentown
1.71

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.50
Hangzhou Greentown
1.13

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par
Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw
52%
liaoning hongyun FC or Hangzhou Greentown
75%
Draw or Hangzhou Greentown
73%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
11%
Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
68%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
32%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
11%
Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
80%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
47%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
36%
Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.71 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more
27%
level
25%
Hangzhou Greentown scores more
48%

Hangzhou Greentown at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: liaoning hongyun FC vs Hangzhou Greentown

Hangzhou Greentown beat liaoning hongyun FC 2-1 in League One on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Tiexi New District Sports Center in Shenyang.